Dr. Kayla Kroll received a BSc in geological sciences from Cal Poly Pomona in 2008 and her MSc and Ph.D. from in Earthquake Physics from the University of California, Riverside in 2012 and 2015, respectively. At UCR Kayla applied observational seismology and numerical earthquake simulation methods to understand earthquake nucleation and triggering, fault interaction, and induced seismicity. Kayla completed a postdoc and converted to Research Scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2018, where she focuses her efforts on understanding induced seismicity and developing mitigation methods related to energy applications. Kayla serves as the Deputy Group Leader of the Seismology Group and to serve on the LLNL management team for the DOE’s SMART Initiative for Carbon Storage.
Ensemble Forecasts of Induced Seismicity
Kayla A. Kroll1, Christopher S. Sherman1, Corinne Layland-Bachmann2, and Joshua A. White1
1Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94551
2Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, 94720
The possibility inducing earthquakes has been recognized as a significant risk faced by carbon storage operations which, in extreme cases, may lead to property damage and complete cessation of storage at a site. Efforts to mitigate this risk first require an understanding of the current and short-term future seismic hazard. Therefore, we have developed an Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION”, an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection, and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ, if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, Orion leverages the benefits of both statistical- and physics-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The Orion toolkit consists of an easy-to-use web-based GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. Orion will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, Orion will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, Orion will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.
Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.
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